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Day Traders
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
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How to trade stocks overnight
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
Trader Stewie has put together a great post on what he looks for when picking a stock to hold overnight with the plan of making money at the next mornings open.
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July 17 Mixed Trading after big rally
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
I kind of expected choppy action today after having a large bounce in the markets yesterday and it being the day before Options expire. I was up as much as 600, but then I lost some profits after I tried shorting(reversing from a long) too soon around the signal at 8:30am. I ended up losing about $180 on YM on that trade. The NYSE A/D ratio is slightly bullish today.
I got a 20 cent scalp on Crude Oil before we sold off. My scalp on Crude Oil was a long, and my trade on Gold was a short. Both positions would have been wrong if I were still holding them.
The bond futures are down again today. I expect Bond Yields to rise over the next few months. I'm not sure whats a better bet, (ie long term bonds or short term bonds). I think the FOMC will raise rates at the next meeting, and as noted in some of their FOMC minutes, they may raise rates aggressively to combat inflation and a crumbling US dollar. The effect of raising rates on Mortgage rates will probably make the housing market even worse. This is probably why Bernanke and Co have been holding rates steady, moreover; I imagine they see the housing market as a bigger threat to the US economy right now than the US dollars decline.
The Oil and Airline Pair Trade unravels
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
What better time to Unravel this long standing trade between airlines and Crude Oil then OPEX week, a week characterized by extreme moves with options expiring on Friday.
Crude Oil started the week above $146 a barrel and is now at $130 a barrel. A $16 drop in 3 days. Meanwhile the airline sector has rallied hard the last 3 days in direct relation with the drop in oil prices. AMR is up 70% in the last 3 days alone.
July 17 Rally continues as Oil drops
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
The Dow is up over 200pts right now. You knew this was going to happen. Oil tanks and Banks rally right before OPEX. Option traders love this. They lock in hefty profits from selling calls and letting the theta (time value) decay. Then when OPEX week comes around, they exit there positions (covering there short calls), and in some cases reverse and go long. Can you imagine the money that was made if you went long AMR or any of the airlines on Tuesday and held into today?
What's with WM? It's holding at $5.00 all day. I'm still concerned about this company.
Came back and did some afternoon trading and made a couple extra bucks. I should have shorted the bond futures this morning as I planned. I just hope next week they pop up so I can short ZB or ZF.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
Thursday, July 17, 2008
A picture I took of What use to be Washington Mutuals Home Loan center. (took this pic a few weeks ago).
Beazer Homes is in the same complex, and CENTEX homes is across the street.
All these Mortgage houses are near my work, in the beautiful city of Roseville, California. Nearby is the City of Granite Bay. The people in Granite Bay are rich. The kids all drive BMW's and Mercedes. Walk into the nearby Chipotle and its always packed with teens and a parking lot full of expensive cars. I see a lot of commercial real estate coming to sale in Roseville's Financial sector besides Washington Mutuals old place.
You had to walk into the frame and ruin it didn't you?
A cool bumper sticker from somebody at my gym. I noticed a lot of the hot girls go to the gym around 10:30am. I normally go to the gym around 3-5pm depending if I have to go to work.
My computer is running good. No BLUE SCREENS of DEATH. I reduced my RAM and it runs better, weird, but I wont ask questions.
Labels: My Pictures
July 18 OPEX Friday 9AM reversal
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
I took a short on NQ around 8:30am but it didn't fall; however, YM dropped 45pts during the same time period. This had me worried, so when I saw a potential bounce setup in YM I exited my NQ short.
Right after 9am, SMH (tech sector ETF) broke and NQ dropped sharply catching up with YM's decline.
I'm not sure if the 9 AM hour has significance, but it may with the overseas markets closing, so in the future I will track this time period on future OPEX days.
A Choppy OPEX as usual. I'm mad about my NQ trade, but I Hit my goal for the day so I'm done. I'm working on refining some indicators as a result of seeing Richards new Volume splatter indicator.
Here's a long scalp I got on ZB when I saw what looked to be a top in the stock indices.
This is a picture from my Simulated account. Remember a few months ago when I made the Poll asking if AMR was a buy at $7.00. Well I held that position for 2 months and actually closed it out for a profit today. I also made $3,000 this week trading 1 contract on YM and ZN, one of my best short term swing trades I've made in the simulator in such a short period. Over 350pts made in YM this week with just 2 trades.
Trader of the Week
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
Trader Stewie has been killing it in the market lately and has received the BSD award for the Week.
BSD stands for Big Swinging Dick. Here is Trader Stewie taking a walk in the park after taking it to Ms.Market.
Labels: Big Swinging Dick, Trader of the Week
Pakistan Stock Exchange Riot
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
Checkout The BIG Picture to see some pictures where riots took place at Pakistan's stock exchange over a drastic decline in the stock market.
Labels: stock market crash
Friday, July 18, 2008
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
Friday, July 18, 2008
I feel Like I've wasted my whole day working on indicators for my charts. I don't think I've accomplished anything. For the guy that wanted to know my indicators here's a pic of the list. I'm looking at price spikes, volume/or lack of volume, block trades and referencing the NYSE A/D ratio for market strength/weakness. If I find the energy, perhaps I will post my trading plan for trading index futures.(Not likely to happen soon).
Labels: nyse a/d
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
Saturday, July 19, 2008
You won't be able to short a whole raft of financial related stocks next week, thanks to SEC chairman Chris Cox. CluelessQ TRADER got a bulletin from TradeStation which says they aren't allowing "RETAIL" short sells on certain financials.
A research paper on- ”Can Short-sellers Predict Returns? Daily Evidence”
Labels: SEC
Day Traders
Thu, Jul 17 at 03:49 PM
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Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Thu, Jul 17 at 03:49 PM
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
"The agency's rule change would prevent investors from making "naked" short sales of the biggest financial stocks. A "naked" short sale occurs when an investor sells stock that has not yet been borrowed."
Naked short selling is already illegal, so essentially, the SEC is saying, STOP shorting financials or else the US financial system is going to crash.
"The rule will go into effect on Monday, July 21, and last through July 29, although it could be extended to last up to 30 days. The SEC said it will consider rules to address short selling issues across the entire stock market."
Of course- After OPEX the SEC will enforce the naked short selling crack down, a rule that has already long been in place.
Of all the stocks I thought I would see on there was Washington Mutual, but No.
Alas, Goldman Sachs is on the list, and it isn't even that far down relative to the other companies. Expect GS to rally when this is all said in done.
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Volatility Warning
Thu, Jul 17 at 03:49 PM
Mr. Mortgage Update
Thu, Jul 17 at 03:49 PM
CBOT down
Thu, Jul 17 at 03:49 PM
I just lost my quotes for YM.
Edit- 4 min later, quotes back up. VOLATILITY BABY!!!
Time to switch to NQ. Oil is dead and Tech will be the bread winner.
AMR up 96 cents right now, or 21%.
I've made some coin this morning shorting the 30yr bond future and going long the Dow.
I'M BUYING NYSE TICK PULLBACKS TO -300 TO -500 as long as the trend holds up.
Volatility is drying up after the spike down in oil.
THE TREND IS UP today. DON'T FADE A DULL MARKET!!!
Goldman Sachs a bunch of cheaters?
Thu, Jul 17 at 03:49 PM
(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS - News) has been questioned by chiefs of rivals Bear Stearns Cos and Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH - News) about speculation that the securities firm had a role in putting pressure on their firms' stocks, the Wall Street Journal said on Wednesday citing people familiar with their talk.
Is it possible that the King of all Brokers is in trouble? I seriously doubt it. I think they are a rock solid company that will continue to beat every other brokerage house hands down.
Labels: GS
July 16 Airlines Rally
Thu, Jul 17 at 03:49 PM
Crude Oil sold off on inventory numbers and airlines rallied hard even after AMR reported a 1.45 billion dollar loss for its quarterly earnings.
The dow Rallied when Oil tanked off its inventory # at 10:30am EST.
I was long 3 contracts on YM before the oil spike lower and YM popped. I also got some good scalps shorting the 30yr bond futures contract. The 2yr (ZF) has been relatively strong compared to the longer bonds.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Thu, Jul 17 at 03:49 PM
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Checkout DT's best wave of his life (Surfing).
DT, this music video is for you. (TokyoTrader, take note my good music)
I look forward to seeing these guys in concert this summer.
Life is Beautiful by Sixx AM-
lyrics-
You can’t quit until you try
You can’t live until you die
You can’t learn to tell the truth
Until you learn to lie
You can’t breathe until you choke
You gotta laugh when you’re the joke
There’s nothing like a funeral to make you feel alive
Just open your eyes
Just open your eyes
And see that life is beautiful.
Will you swear on your life,
That no one will cry at my funeral?
I know some things that you don’t
I’ve done things that you won’t
There’s nothing like a trail of blood
to find your way back home
I was waiting for my hearse
What came next was so much worse
It took a funeral to make me feel alive ....
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Thu, Jul 17 at 03:49 PM
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Trader Stewie has put together a great post on what he looks for when picking a stock to hold overnight with the plan of making money at the next mornings open.
Day Traders
Tue, Jul 15 at 02:36 PM
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Run on the Banks
Tue, Jul 15 at 02:36 PM
You know there were periods today where I thought that the market was just going to fall 1000pts in a few seconds. That is the type of fear you find at bottoms.
You know the issues with the banks even has me worrying about my bank. I think we are at the climax point of all this bullshit with "writedowns". It is the perfect time for all the dumbass investors to put on PUT hedge positions on their stocks and for the FED to orchestrate some bullshit rally right before OPEX this Friday. It's as if money is just evaporating into thin air. Seriously, Can C, BAC, and WM go bankrupt?
THE FLY discusses Prosecution of the Short Seller- after some guy came on CNBC and said that we need to find the Short Sellers that were making Rumors and causing the bank stocks to tank.
Who's going to rally this market if all the banks are going bankrupt or they are so broke they are selling stock to raise capital? The trend continues down and short covering rallies are faded.
What are you suppose to do as an investor?
SELL all your stocks
Take all your money out of your bank
Watch the money under your your mattress become worth even less as the US dollar tanks
You know 1 year ago I complained all the time about how the market shouldn't be making new highs and how the rally last year, particularly in CHINA was bullshit.
Now I'm doing the exact opposite. Thinking today is the day we get a reversal and rally. The only thing I need to do is follow the Dam chart and throw away all FUNDAMENTAL BULLSHIT that the BANKS tell investors to consider when investing. What a bunch of bullshit.
Lets remember one thing, all these banks are operated by HUMANS, and I know for a fact that Humans can be real stupid. If the market doesn't CRASH this week from a FEAR of RUNNING ON THE BANKS then the market is probably going to rally like a mother.
Are there any SAFE banks anymore??? Is Washington Mutual the next IndYMac? Holy Crap!
Trade review for the day-
I thought we were going to rally today, but I stayed true to my system and ground it out. Today was a very difficult day for me. I was up $300 in the first hour but then I let my short position on ZN get out of control when a number of the bank stocks spiked lower on fears of a run on the banks. I was down about $800 from getting chopped to pieces near the afternoon lows, but made back most my money at the small 1:30pm reversal. I can't believe I've been trading for 5 hours, it seems like 2 hours. I'm not trading the last hour, getting some food and locking in profits.
What a choppy mess-
Checkout the TRADING ARCADE for daily P/L (the number of traders is increasing, this is getting good, I like the format too, a lot cooler than EliteTraeder's P/L thread)
How to survive a real Bear Attack-
Monday, July 14, 2008
Tue, Jul 15 at 02:36 PM
Jim Rogers says Fannie & Freddie rescue is a disaster
Tue, Jul 15 at 02:36 PM
Rogers Holdings-
I was surprised to hear he was Long China and Airlines.
He's also long Ag Commodities, base metals, and sugar.
He thinks Taiwan's market may be a good long in the future.
Rogers is short US financials and the US dollar
Labels: Jim Rodgers
Washington Mutual run on the Bank and the FDIC
Tue, Jul 15 at 02:36 PM
I'm concerned for the US banking system and the FDIC.
With IndyMac gone, the FDIC just lost 10% of its reserves.
What happens if Washington Mutual and Bank of America go?
The FDIC can only insure so much money.
What happens when the FDIC has all of its reserves tapped out from banks going under?
Where is our money safe?
From FDIC website-
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) preserves and promotes public confidence in the U.S. financial system by insuring deposits in banks and thrift institutions for at least $100,000; by identifying, monitoring and addressing risks to the deposit insurance funds; and by limiting the effect on the economy and the financial system when a bank or thrift institution fails.
The FDIC receives no Congressional appropriations – it is funded by premiums that banks and thrift institutions pay for deposit insurance coverage and from earnings on investments in U.S. Treasury securities. With an insurance fund totaling more than $49 billion, the FDIC insures more than $3 trillion of deposits in U.S. banks and thrifts – deposits in virtually every bank and thrift in the country.
The FDIC insures deposits only. It does not insure securities, mutual funds or similar types of investments that banks and thrift institutions may offer.Customers of the failed institution automatically become customers of the assuming institution. Most of the time, the transition is seamless from the customer's point of view.
A look at the balance sheet tells me that if more banks go under, the FDIC will not be able to insure us that $100,000 like they say.
$3 trillion divided by $54 billion. Means that the reserves are less than 1.8% of the money value of the insured accounts. For every dollar in an account, there is about 1.8 cents in the FDIC.
If there is a banking crisis, the FDIC must sell these T-bills for cash. But the $54 billion on there balance sheets will only last for so long as more banks go under.
Looking at Washington Mutuals terrible last quarter report you can see it says they have about $181 billion dollars in deposits. Certainly a number the FDIC couldn't insure if there was a run on the bank.
For all the Washington Mutual Bankers out there, lets just hope there isn't a run on the bank, or we will have "FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON!"
A list of the FDIC's failed banks-
FDIC quarterly Bank Review is Terrible-
I was checking out Real Estate owned by the FDIC-
This is a $750 house in Detroit (Best place to live in US)
Property Description:
Whats funny is that the Tax on this House is more than 2x the cost of the house.
Single Family two-story farm style frame home with vinyl siding, approximately 1,279 squarefeet, age estimated to be 1910, containing 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, unfinished basement located on a30x130 lot.
Tax Information:The estimated annual taxes are $2,017.14 per year.
Labels: FDIC, Washington Mutual
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Tue, Jul 15 at 02:36 PM
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
The market open looks terrible for the bank stocks. If I was brave I would go long some LEAPS on XLF. I think we may be getting close to the panic we have around market bottoms. The selloff is mainly contained in the financials, so it doesn't look like everyone is freaking out and selling everything. Today may be a good time to buy solid stocks.
Here's the start of Feedwhip's latest snapshot
taken Sat, Jul 19 at 05:53 PM
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
Short selling ban next week
You won't be able to short a whole raft of financial related stocks next week, thanks to SEC chairman Chris Cox. CluelessQ TRADER got a bulletin from TradeStation which says they aren't allowing "RETAIL" short sells on certain financials.[ YouTube video ]
[ YouTube video ]
A research paper on- ”Can Short-sellers Predict Returns? Daily Evidence”
Posted by HPT at 9:24 AM0 comments
Labels: SEC
Friday, July 18, 2008
Wasted Day
[image: jul+18+ym.png]I feel Like I've wasted my whole day working on indicators for my charts. I don't think I've accomplished anything. For the guy that wanted to know my indicators here's a pic of the list. I'm looking at price spikes, volume/or lack of volume, block trades and referencing the NYSE A/D ratio for market strength/weakness. If I find the energy, perhaps I will post my trading plan for trading index futures.(Not likely to happen soon).
[image: ym+indicators.png]
Posted by HPT at 7:15 PM3 comments
Labels: nyse a/d
Pakistan Stock Exchange Riot
[image: pakistani_stock_brokers.png] Checkout The BIG Picture to see some pictures where riots took place at Pakistan's stock exchange over a drastic decline in the stock market.Posted by HPT at 2:17 PM0 comments
Labels: stock market crash
Trader of the Week
Trader Stewie has been killing it in the market lately and has received the BSD award for the Week.[image: trader+stewie+trophy.png]
BSD stands for Big Swinging Dick. Here is Trader Stewie taking a walk in the park after taking it to Ms.Market. [ YouTube video ]
Posted by HPT at 11:19 AM2 comments
Labels: Big Swinging Dick, Trader of the Week
July 18 OPEX Friday 9AM reversal
I took a short on NQ around 8:30am but it didn't fall; however, YM dropped 45pts during the same time period. This had me worried, so when I saw a potential bounce setup in YM I exited my NQ short. [image: jul+18+nq+trade.png] Right after 9am, SMH (tech sector ETF) broke and NQ dropped sharply catching up with YM's decline. [image: jul+18+nq+2.png]I'm not sure if the 9 AM hour has significance, but it may with the overseas markets closing, so in the future I will track this time period on future OPEX days....
